Will Scotland finally end the All Blacks hoodoo?
Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.
After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.
The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.
A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.
Modern Encounters
Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.
During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.
Team News
Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.
We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.
Key Absences
Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.
The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.
In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.
Squad Depth
They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.
And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Coaching Choices
Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.
Past Encounters
Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.
By the Numbers
Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.
They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.
Required Performance
During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.
The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.
In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.
Conclusion
Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.
But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.